need 300k jobs per month to recover in 6 years

dum luck

you still out there

i got pigged on my response to your request for data to support my position

so here it is

starting with your request

dum luk wrote on Fri, 12/11/2009 - 12:27 pm

Mock,

You keep posting that "we need to create over 300k jobs a month to dig our way out of this hole over a 5 to 7 year period".

Where are you getting that number ??

I believe 175k per month would do it in a 5 year time frame. These are my sources:

http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0912/document/dd120809.pdf

Economist Mark Zandi: On stimulus, jobs, state finances, inflation and the year ahead

my answer

you asked where i got my figures and supplied a different set of numbers

your first reference says 86k just to hold steady at current employment rate

my sources put the steady state number at 127 k

http://www.epi.org/analysis_and_opinion/entry/signs_of_healing_in_the_labor_market_though_unemployment_remains_in_double_/

ok no big deal

what you are leaving out is the job GROWTH needed to re coup the 8 million jobs lost since the recession began

do we agree almost 8 million jobs have been lost????

see this article for one as a reference
US economy has lost almost 7m jobs since recession began, fresh figures show - Telegraph

we were for an ice age before we were against it

longwaver wrote 10:49 pm

" in 75 the gov predicted a (coming) ice age...And (and so)a government forecast for anything is worth what again?"

-----

my response

i dont think the government made that prediction in 75 (ford administration?)

back then there was good reason to think that in the coming centuries (they never said tomorrow) we would enter a new ice age

the natural record indicated grand cycles of 95 thousand years ( orbital eccentricity) 42k yrs orbital obliquity) and 12k yrs ( rotational precession) due to the milankovitch cycle

the newer warning about climate change have noting to do with predicting the milankovitch cycle or other natural events that effect climate

i dont know if 20 billions metric tons of CO2 into the air every year will win thee tug of war with the natural cycle of ice ages

i think (guess) it will

but the forbes article is simplistic and unreasonably vituperous in its argument

this is not your grandfathers de-recession

Adllen C said
"Let's not forget the govi deficits"

yeah the deficits are crushing

and thats why i take issue with our friends who say there are lessons from past recessions or the great depression

where we are at today as a country and society is off the charts

nothing like the past

around the time of the GD or just prior, the usa was the "china" of that time...we exported industrial and agricultural goods like crazy

before WWII we had a far favorable balance of trade and gov deficit situation

i really am concerned that this time we have boxed ourselves into a corner and there is no good way out

and as you know i suspect the puppet masters have rigged it this way by design

which political or corporate leaders want to tell the american people we cant live so high on the hog

look at what the press and what passes for our leadership did to carter when he put on a sweater and turned down the heat

right for the wrong reasons?

mock turtle (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 12/6/2009 - 10:21 pm

*

Wisdom Speaker

except for your quote of mine "the two programs are not the same..."

i agree pretty much with everything you said

please note in my original comment and in many others...

i think we are in deep voodoo...seriously effed and the dollar is toast etc

all im saying is that many of us are so blind angry about all this shit..and understandably so

that many of us have transitions into a zone of less analysis and in favor of venting our spleens

wisdom speaker wrote

mock turtle wrote:

"...but the two programs are not the same..."

But they are. Under TARP, Uncle Sam issued a large quantity of Treasuries, and injected the cash thus obtained into the banking sector. Effectively a taxpayer-guaranteed loan to the banking sector, funded by investors' cash. But whence flowed the cash?
Ahh, lookie here! We have the Federal Reserve doubling its "balance sheet" to buy Treasuries and Agencies (which are nearly equivalent to Treasuries, given the nationalization of Fannie and Freddie). Net result is a loan of newly-minted cash from the Federal Reserve to the banks, collateralized by the assets and "earning power" of the banks, with the taxpayers on the hook in case the banks fail to make good.

Now, look at the Fed's other program. Bankers walk up with trash MBS, walk away with Treasuries and sell them for cash. Federal Reserve doubles its balance sheet to "buy more" Treasuries and Agencies. Banks have to back the MBS loaned to the Federal Reserve in the event that they are no longer AAA-rated (or something like that)... Net result is a loan of newly-minted cash from the Federal Reserve to the banks, collateralized by the assets and "earning power" of the banks, with the taxpayers on the hook in case the banks fail to make good.

Read the last sentence of each paragraph and tell me what's different, exactly?

This would be inflationary except that most of the relevant inflation (expansion of money and credit) already occurred. It occurred when the house and stock markets inflated. That was done with shadow bank credit, which the Federal Reserve has now made explicit. They had the choice of ratifying the banks' stealth inflation of "asset values" or allowing the FIRE sector to re-equilibrate with the real economy through asset deflation, and they blinked. (Congress blinked too -- they raised the minimum wage by a large chunk to ratify the inflation as well.) The next problem is that the people's agents in government also failed to rein in the creation of yet more shadow bank credit, so the stage was set for yet another inflationary asset bubble...

Meanwhile, the real economy struggles under tremendous friction from the burden of servicing the huge, and generally non-productive population in the FIRE economy. "Credit intermediation" is "productive friction"...

is this progress...tarp paydown

from the NYT and CR

"From the NY Times: U.S. Forecasts Smaller Loss From Bailout of Banks

CR, "The Treasury Department expects to recover all but $42 billion of the $370 billion it has lent to ailing companies since the financial crisis began last year, with the portion lent to banks actually showing a slight profit, according to a new Treasury report."


after reading all the negative comments around and the NYT article...it seems to me...

according to the NYT article the estimates of tarp loses have gone from 341 billion last summer...to 100 billion and now down to 42 billion

i agree with hollywood hack that given the games the fed has played at "the window" accepting trash MBS and other assorted crap in exchange for us treasuries is a ticking financial time bomb (my words not his)

but the two programs are not the same

in our zeal, to lambaste the miscreants in DC and NYC for banksterism

are we possibly turning a blind eye to any progress at all?

i agree with Rob Dawg that as long as unemployment is sky high and climbing we are effed (again my word not his)

but this story is...what it is.... nothing more

lets see if the number 41 billion comes to pass...like you im skeptical

but willing to wait and see

but nothing i read above contradicts the new york times article CR posted

alas the poor dollar i knew himm well

my dear country is about to begin taking its bitter medicine and the affliction will result in a long term and most unpleasant treatment (gross understatement)

the weakening (devaluation) of the dollar will force us to deal with our imbalanced trade (current account deficit)by making imports more expensive...like a tariff... only no income goes to uncle sam

a strengthening currency entitles the bearer to a greater share of the goods and services produced by a country that has a comparatively weakened currency

china, with a strengthening currency and economy none the less faces a number of future liabilities

first they hold maybe around one trillion dollars of their reserves as dollars or dollar denominated securities....the value of which is rapidly declining

second their country is "geared" towards being an exporting economy not a consumer economy, they will no doubt transition

we

the usa

are lucky that we have all our international "debts" (japan saudi britain and china hold the lions share)

all these debts are dollar denominated

by contrast poor argentia for instance owed a ton of money denominated in dollars

when their currency went bust

their debt was magnified...ouch

but as the value of the dollar drops, people around the world will be looking to either spend their dollars on real things or get out of dollars thus driving further the dollars decline

greed is not good

ok this all just got too abstract for me and im to blame...i own it

bringin it down to brass tacks

id like to make enuf money AND do substantial good along the way

some people have no concept of enuf

they are never satisfied

as the door to the tomb is slowly closing they have to go back one more time to fill their pockets up with treasure until they are trapped for eternity..entombed

1 million dollar bonuses are not enuf cause the guy next door is getting 2 million and you gotta get the most

the world is never enuf

thats greed

greed is NOT good

greed is unrestrained growth...greed is cancer

you can make money and participate in a community and a governing process that aims towards justice and fairness

and yes there are many examples where governments are corrupted and run over the people

but a land without governance,.... a free for all simply means the strongest bully , or the most powerful gang rules by terror

you can eliminate government tomorrow but one would still have, out of control mega corporations and gangs (mafia , crips bloods hells angels ms13) secret societies and tribalism

whats the alternative?

you may know them by their deeds

look, im trying to be clear not riddle-culous

you are not slow im just not saying it right

ok third try

claiming self interest or claiming selflessness...neither claim is necessarily authentic

know people by their record of actions not possibly feigned philosophical claims

MLK was an altruistic guy...not cause he said he was...cause he did he was

being brutally honest

1write wrote
"I'm slow. What do you mean?"

---

to review, you said,

"When somebody claims self-interest as a motive they seem more honest to me than someone who claims the motive of seflessness."

my rhetorical question is:

so when i rob you ill make sure to remark how im doing this in my own self interest and that will make you see me as a person of great integrity?

the honesty of a shark

1 write said

"When somebody claims self-interest as a motive they seem more honest to me than someone who claims the motive of seflessness. I'm very weary of the religious."

---

well i guess that make genghis khan one hell of a mensch

NAV for companies with international exposure

RockyR said

"mostly in cash here. sad"

hey Rocky, yeah...its hard to know if one should jump, the markets are so crazy

gold looking bubblelicious of late if you just look at the chart

but

when one considers the talk coming out of the fed...maintaining low rates

and all the rest of the craziness out there...gold probably still has a good run ahead of it

i guess...but i just dont know...and for that reason im never all in...in anything

and so ill never make the big hit...im notsosmart

theres a good argument out there that equities will continue to do well as long as the fed is demolishing the dollar

ie if one assumes any company has an intrinsic NAV then as the dollar becomes worth less the dollar denominated value of the outstanding shares should go up

heres my question, ...is this more true.... or only true... for companies that have international market exposure...i would think so,

and they should do "better" if (when) there is a recovering world economy as we, the (usa) are being dunked repeatedly in the toilet

gdx is not gld

to RockyR

im not smart about GDX, im not sure i can answer your question, so research this idea

but i think that this etf is composed of parts that mine and as such those producers hedge in such a way (straddle is it called ?) that price fluctuations outside of a predicted range, both higher and lower, dampen profits

ie the producers count a a business model where price is stable or slow trend

again im not smart about this and will check it out tonight

so speed limits should be voluntary ?

mock turtle wrote:

"how does a person get up every morning and face the day when their primary motive for most of the things they do in life is money and power"

---

That's not a statement, final or otherwise. It's a question sans interrogation mark. Money and power are just other words for freedom. A person barred by law from flying home for Christmas is in the same position as one who can't afford to fly home for Christmas.

True happiness may indeed be found in service to others for you and for me, but we have a right to PURSUE happiness wherever we think we may find it. If I help others, it's because I choose to, not because someone like you thinks I have an obligation to. I live by the Golden Rule which means that I attempt to treat others as I wish to be treated myself. As I value freedom so highly, I wish for and work for others to have maximum freedom as well.

for some, too much is never enuf

B spock

my best final statement on this subject for this evening, is simply this

in all my years my prevailing motive for most of the things ive done of importance...deeds done within the context of ...family, community, job, friends...i have done, not for profit, or personal aggrandizement, but for the greater good

true happiness is to be found in service to others

this is how i was schooled at home as a kid, in the boy scouts, at church, and what i learned from the best adult role models as i grew into adulthood (a process that took more than 25 years Smile

how does a person get up every morning and face the day when their primary motive for most of the things they do in life is money and power

because really for most of those folks...too much is never enuf

i am certain that leads to a hollow existence....certain

bad government or no government

Bearded Spock (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 9:20

mock turtle wrote, "in a mass society ...media and money buy power
there has to be a check on the size of the check

You want to solve the problems of concentrated power by creating more concentrated power. When have the powerful government leaders NOT colluded with the wealthy media moguls, businessmen, religious leaders etc against the public?

The State is a monster you have created to fight your battles for you, but you can't control it anymore than your enemies can. It will eventually turn on you and leave you worse off that without it.

intentions count for something

Bearded spock wrote

"That being said, it's obvious to me that some of the people who have caused the most harm have had the best of intentions and some of the most selfish people have done the most good, if unintentionally."

ok i read that about 5 times and that sentence certainly , as a hypothesis can stand

but

equally i hope you recognize the contra positive of that sentence is true also

ie

That being said, it's obvious to me that some of the people who have caused the most good have had the best of intentions and some of the most selfish people have done the most harm if unintentionally.

so now that you and i hopefully agree intentions dont guarantee outcomes

i ask you

who do you want to bed down with in a political and social malestrom

mother teresa or charles manson

my meaning....intentions do count for something

not a minimum wage...a maximum wage

Rob Dawg

interesting idea

i was thinking along the lines of how it was in the usa during the truman...eisenhower years and for awhile there after

the marginal tax rates were so high on huge incomes..that no company paid their top people much beyond 60 or 70 times what the bottom people on the shop floor made

similar idea

btw

i dont consider owning, and building up a company and then selling it, a wage, or salary or compensation

i would never seek to limit what a person gets from creating or inventing something and then selling it

ie an artist creates a sculpture and sells it for a million

bill gates creates and builds a software company and sells it for a billion to whom ever

a farmer acquires land piece by piece, develops it and in the latter years sells for a huge profit...no problem


*

im not all in

do i like gold...uh huh

do i like gold a lot...mos def

did i like gold a year ago..yep as written on these pages

am i all in...nope

am i half in...mmmmmm not exactly

gotta leave room on the plate for other plays in case im wrong...whch often i am

plus, just had

to lay in a supply of basic food stuffs in the basement

you know, chocolate, scotch, coffee,

and then some cash in a shit house mouse mm fund so when the time is right

play something like ryjux and tbt

an allusion to a movie

EvilHenryPaulson wrote

for anyone that didn't see it, FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Goldman warns of near-term downside risk in WTI

----

EHP this negative rant is not directed at you but at gs)

im sorry but every time i hear goldman announces a trend

i cant help but ask myself

what are their ulterior motives

guessing they have already pre positioned themselves

to profit from the rest of the herd receiving this information

thus the origin of the slogan ,"buy on the rumor , sell on the news "(or the inverse)

goldman lies esp about WTI (as if there was that much west texas intermediate left to make a market anyway) ok that was snark

all bullshit, all goldman all the time

there will be blood

an allusion to the movie btw... not a threat

fasten your seatbelts its gonna be a bumpy ride

at a receent speech Atlanta Fed Vice President and Senior Economist John Robertson commented about the report, " NFIB small business economic trends"

http://www.nfib.com/Portals/0/PDF/sbet/SBET200911.pdf

looking at that report and capital outlays and inventories current and projected

pages 16-18

robertson's optimism is not supported

the data and graphs indicate over supply and lack of demand

small businesses responding to the survey not expecting much change too soon

heres my take

we, as a country embarked upon a supply side strategy more than a quarter century ago

im not arguing that supply side or demand side, is either, better than the other..both have their place

but this is what we get when we go all the way down the road to the bitter end following any one paradigm

supply side taken to the limit leaves us with declining wages, declining prices (until the dollar is destroyed then... we go stagflation

and ebbing demand, leaving the BRIC countries to fill in the void

and wasnt that the plan all along...hahahaha

fasten your seat belts its gonna be a bumpy nite

(as bette davis said)

YouTube
- Fasten Your Seatbelts

phill gramm wanted for gutting the fire department

Basel Too wrote

"phil gramm has a somewhat valid argument. most of the institutions that have failed, or under government conservatorship, participated in activities that would have been allowed irrespective of GLBA.

----

basel that is total nonsense

"theGramm-Leach-Bliley Act allowed commercial banks, investment banks, securities firms and insurance companies to consolidate."*

ie travelers and citigroup one of the biggest infestations out there!

this multiplied counter party risk and systemic risk

"Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has argued that the Act helped to create the crisis in an article in The Nation has made the same argument."

"Contrary to Phil Gramm's claim that "GLB didn't deregulate anything" (see Defense), the GLB Act that he co-authored explicitly exempted security-based swap agreements (a derivative financial product based on another security's value or performance) from regulation by the SEC by amending the Securities Act of 1933, Section 2A, and similarly the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Section 3A,"*

didnt you watch the warning re brooksley born two weeks ago on frontline....sheesh

*quotes are from wikipedia GLBA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm%E2%80%93Leach%E2%80%93Bliley_Act

sorry hommie

but i gotta call BULL SHIT on this claim

blaming clinton for demise of glass steagall

a friend wrote today, lamenting the re blowing of the financial bubble, saying,
"If you could pin this bubble on one event (besides the Bill Clinton repeal of the 1934 banking reform act)...it would be...911."

i chose to ignore the 911 comment as obviously silly, but blaming bill has credence in the world of wing nuts so i responded:

its so kind of you to give bill clinton the credit

especially since the glass steagal act had been violated for years before clinton signed the gramm leach bliley act

by the way

the senate vote overturning glass steagall, was 92 to 2 with 6 abstaining

not much room for a veto there

besides, this was around the time clinton was being tried by the senate on charges of impeachment for lying about a stain on a blue dress

but .hey its ok, give all the credit to bill

im sure he could use the love

but please...remember the travelers-citi merger happened, with fed approval,BEFORE GLASS STEAGAL.. the law was dead before it hit the ground thanks to greenspan

and all the "i hate regulation" crowd was there to make it so cause you know clinton couldnt have done it alone.

remember phill and windy gramm...the banksta whores who brought this to our doorstep

im ok with you blaming bill clinton...i do too... for a lot

but you do him too much honor to give him so much credit. :)

is the fed driving the equities market?

i visited and read a post at information arbitrage

regarding the article

"barking up the wrong tree"

the authors defense of the equities market made no sense to me and i submitted comments

which may or may not get posted on the site

pending administrative "approval"

where i quired the author as follows:

you seem to be claiming that equity markets are level, open and fair

furthermore you separate these markets from what you see to be more egregious behavior committed in other markets

would you please responds to 3 of my concerns

do you see any evidence that major brokerage firms making big profits by front running the buy and sell orders of their clients? for example goldman seems to have generated a plus 90% success rate in playing the market during Q3...a mathematically extraordinary event!

consumers who are 70% of the economy are tapped out, no longer can get much in the way of home equity lines of credit, and are paying down debt and saving and in general consumers are pulling way back and yet the stock market booms while P/E ratios are way up over 125...does the fed use primary dealers to indirectly enter the equity markets and effect the market price of individual stocks and even entire sectors of the market such as banking? how can the equity market moves of the past 6 months be justified?

even without a "pecora commission" there is evidence that the price of lehman stock was destoyed by people who purchased credit default swaps against lehmans demise an then those same people drove the stock down with naked short selling...is this you idea of a fair and balanced equities market? or do you dispute this happened?

thanks in advance for your responses
best wishes
mock turtle

flip of the coin

i was asked if i thought the price of gold might be bubblelicious right now

here was my answer

go to kitco.com

scroll down till you see the graph of one year gold on the right side

click just below that, on the 5 year graph link

check out the slope and decide ,

given what you know about inflation 3 or 4 years ago

and present destruction of the US dollar

whether or not things look frothy

then ask yourself why india and china are accumulating gold

and what the end of us dollar hegemony might mean

finally... to help you decide

flip a coin...

preferable a gold coin if you have one...... Smile

nouriel warns of the dollar snap back

Fri, 11/06/2009 - 11:46
#122558

dr doom is one of my favorite characters in this nightmare we call reality

he sounded the warning along with other notables

but lately he has been sounding a warning about a collapse in the dollar carry trade...the fall of a commodities bubble and a snap back of the dollar??? what?

...dollar "snap" back...look im not half as smart as roubini so who am i to say

but

hey, how the hell is the USD gonna snap back when the fed and the whitehouse and congress are pumpin like a teenage boy into his hat at a porno theater

is the fed gonna liquidate its portfolio of ABS (that big bag of mark to model crap)

and , or is the fed gonna soak up liquidity with reverse repos...or raise the fed funds rate...or stop supporting treasuries?

some combination of those actions, for the foreseeable future, would smash this country to pieces like a wooden row boat onto the rocks of the portland lighthouse in a gale

and in the midst of the deepest recession since the GD what commodity bubble does nouriel have in mind

no doubt gold, oil and a host of other flight to safety commodities will rise, some dramatically...and then fall...but i think (guess) the rise aint done risin and the fall is even farther away

ffedresrv

bank of the united states of america

a concept ive been arguing for on these pages for almost two years

i found this excellent contribution at yves smiths site, naked capitalism

here is the direct link to the author...an excellent argument for ending the federal reserve

Washington's Blog

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/

goldman, 90% trades they win

mock turtle (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 9:11 am

*

TraderMark

yes indeed

golman had a Q3 that was out of this world or er uh out of this universe

kinda like an evening of playing red or black with every spin of the roulette wheel and winning 90% of the time

is there cheating ...well gosh and golly

see zero hedge

"When a firm's trading performance challenges not only all preconceptions of realistic trading, but also of statistical distributions, one can merely stand back and watch in awe. Attached is a graphic of what a rigged, backstopped and manipulated market is all about. The chart demonstrates Goldman's YTD trading track record: out of 194 trading days in 2009, the firm has made over $100 million on 116 occasions!"

Another View At Goldman's Trading Perfection And Statistical Improbabilities | zero hedge

most americans are ignorant of the grand theft taking place in new yourk and DC

and too many of our leaders have joined the hole-in-the-wall-gang

ben needs a little help from hank

ben calls hank on phone

ben,.. hey hank i need some help here

hank, ...youre tellin me

ben, ...no really, what are you buyin lately

hank,.. you mean me personally or our friends at goldman

ben,.... you personally

hank...why do you want to know?

ben...well i dont know if this helicopter thing is gonna quite work out and uh i might need a little protection

hank..hey you need me to send some guys over from Xe?

ben...no not that kind of protection

hank...look ben ill answer your question with a question

ben...ok what

hank...is gold FDIC insured and is the fed long on gold?

ben...whattaya mean of course its not fdic insured...and you know damn well weve been trying to hold gold down

hank...ok theres your answer... , i mean look ben i hope you didnt buy all that bullshit you got told at the NY fed,

hank continues....remember what the maestro said, back in 66 and repeated 8 years ago...gold "is" money

http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=22597

usa creting jobs in china to build our wind tubines

after hearing the happy news about how goldman sachs got H1N1 flue shots for its upper management

ahead of pregnant mothers standing in lines at NYC hospitals

i ran into more good news

a 600 megawatt wind turbine farm being planned for texas will create 300 jobs in china where the turbines are to be built

but wait it gets better

using USA stimulus money!

you may not like communism

but those chinese communists sure are our best friends now ..right?

why ,not only do we let them manipulate their currency to take us export jobs

but then we drop all tariffs so our minimum wage workers cant even compete

and then we even outsource energy jobs using the taxpayers stimulus money

what a country...what a slap in the face of men and women in uniform who put their lives on the line

for

this

country

makes me sick

Bloomberg Printer-Friendly Page

you will not be assimilated

often i have wondered if there is a level of complexity, in any system, beyond which the probability, rises asymptotically, for repeating and compounding malfunctions and then total system breakdown, and thus the system can not evolve in complexity beyond this level

running strategy and platform

blinkered

thanks for the thought

my plan is to run NOT accepting any campaign donations

advertise myself as the candidate that can not be bought

refuse to accept any salary until... and if i am re-elected

run a personal appearance (doorbell, speak at events) and internet and yard sign campaign

my platform

end the federal reserve and restore all appropriate power to the treasury

balanced budget amendment to the constitution

re authorize, pass..glass steagal legislation

set a limit to size of both depository and other financial institutions..an end of too big to fail

open a bank of the united states of america and issue currency direct from the treasury

enuf pitchforks and torches talk

after reading two threads down (the cit chap 11 thread)...

you guys are scaring the shit outta me

yes things are very bad

this means people have to get to work...work the system...hard damn it

stop all the talk about effin ptichforks and torches...and run for political office

im giving serious consideration to filing for the 9th congressional district in washington state

and i expect at least 434 of the users and lurkers to do the same

i dont care what your position is on green house gases or abortion damn it

thats not the issue here, you know what has to be done

replace the house of representatives...and in so doing

drive a stake in the heart of the system that is bailing out the bankstas...period...nothing else matters

i pledge allegiance

do we really have a country any more

want does it mean to fight and die for america

what are school kids pledging allegiance to exactly

seems to me multinational corporations trump citizenship

anybody who thinks massive illegal immigration was an accident and not a design is either woefully mis informed or a fool

---- from the WSJ

* OCTOBER 30, 2009

Chinese-Made Turbines to Fill U.S. Wind Farm

By REBECCA SMITH

A Chinese wind-turbine company, with financing help from Beijing, has struck a deal to be the exclusive supplier to one of the largest wind-farm developments in the U.S., a sign of how Chinese firms are aggressively capitalizing on America's clean-energy push.

The 36,000-acre development in West Texas would receive $1.5 billion in financing through Export-Import Bank of China. Shenyang Power Group, a five-month-old alliance, would supply the project with 240 of its 2.5-megawatt wind turbines, among the biggest made in the world.

Chinese-Made Turbines to Fill U.S. Wind Farm - WSJ.com

third party or third rail

Crazyv

why vote against all dems and repubs

whats to stop a candidate from "false flag" operations

we have to choose candidates individually

party affiliation should be made irrelevant (see constitution regarding house of representatives rules of operation)

there are only 5 issues
4
we should let nothing else divide us

1 accept campaign money only from registered voters in your district

2 uphold the constitution

3 vote the will of the people in your district

4 abolish the federal reserve

5 pass a balanced budget amendment

(as for difference we may have on energy, abortion, war, transportation etc...see number 3 above...represent the will of the people (voters citizens individual persons...in your district))

platform for a new centrist party

mock turtle (profile) wrote on Sat, 10/24/2009 - 7:18 am

ive been advocating, across the tubz, the idea of a third party, for a long time

possible platform that could be acceptable to the left and the right

accept campaign contributions only up to $20

accept campaign contributions from individuals only not corporations

accept only campaign contributions from citizens within your congressional district not people from other congressional districts and especially not from other states

we share our opinions honestly with the electorate but

BUT as candidates for the house of representatives we agree to represent the popular will of our constituency whether we individually agree with it or not...one exception the constitution is not supject to political whim

we back the constitution and especially the bill of rights

we dont give in to fear and we dont accept violations of the 8th and 5th amendment (torture), warrant less searches, 4th, self incrimination (5th), we dont let them disarm law abiding citizens (2nd) etc

the house of representatives was supposed to be 'the peoples house" and originally 35,000 people were represented by one congressman...

today... almost a million people per congressional district and this is by design to require corporate financial backing to get the money to run such a large campaign

so one of our first acts is to double the number of congress men and women in the house of representatives

congress halted the growth with the passage of a bill, and now we can increase the number of representatives...no constitutional amendment required

balanced budget constitutional amendment and the end of the federal reserve with appropriate powers passed to the treasury of the united states

the chinese are our friends, right?

nation building in afghanistan

now theres a dandy idea

almost as easy as turning a house of prostitution into a nunnery

of course we have to do this to deny AQ a sanctuary...not like AQ cant melt into saudi, sudan, eritrea or any other forsaken place

now wait...dont ask china to help tame afghanistan...they only live next door

and cant you see hu just gettin all cozy and huggy with osama...warms my heart just to think about it

hold on china... well do it for ya... cause you know

we got all those excess reserves and that positive current accounts..

WAF'd

ill give you a hint ....first two words... we...are...

to cut or not to tax that is the question

crazyv wrote 10:22 am

"It is tiresome to hear people complain about this tax or that without offering any specifics about where they would cut spending...."

true good point

heres my contribution

cut madicare part D...was an unfunded give away to seniors without a tax passed to support the program (in an election year)
and does more damage to the budget than either social security or regular medicare

get that more damage than either

second

usa has over 850 military bases around the world

cost of empire

why do we still occupy germany and japan?,,,nearly 90 bases in japan alone

cut the number of foreign bases in half..we dont need em

one us navy carrier group is capable of projecting more military power and destruction than any country could ever hope to take and live

clawbacks and crumbs from the table

the pay czar talks clawbacks indeed

too little too late

goldman might not exist today if it were not for the US gov bailing out AIG and the likes

there were many many billions of flow thru dollars from taxpayers to AIG to goldman, sogen and deutch

paulsons bankstas at goldman should be subject to clawback, and then prison but that wont happen

why

because while libertarians, who in many ways i admire

cant stomach the idea of a "bank of the united states of america."..owned by "we the people" who protect systemic risk and therefore should be first in line to benefit..

so what do we get instead

we get a federal reserve system, hey, yeah, thats not socialism is it

nope

owned and operated by, with ,and for, the benefit of the oligarchical elite

yea no socialism there

now dont we feel better

a country that subcontracts its currency, is not a country..we are toast

a country that subcontracts the duties of its army to private ownership is toast

hi blackwater, caci ,triple canopy, etc

see the trend?

only in God we trust

Big Rebound in Existing-Home Sales Shows First-Time Buyer Momentum
Washington, October 23, 2009

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/10/rebound_shows

"Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®."

ha ha ha ha ha NAR propaganda aided and abetted by the fed gov 8k tax credit for first time new home buyers...just demand being pulled forward

in a war with crony capitalism truth is the first casualty

i dont trust NARs numbers
i dont trust the dow
i dont trust the gold prices on the nymex
the price of oil was plainly manipulated during the commodities bubble
the UE numbers touted, emphasize insured workers and gloss over million who are UE
the value of the dollar is manipulated and toasted right before our eyes
and questions?

free money or legal thievery using debt as a six shooter

private equity firms used highly leveraged debt
to buy a name brand firm
plunge that company into debt
pay the private equity partners huge sums for ruining, i mean running the company
meanwhile wall street got big bucks for securitizing the deal
and then before the company seemed too ravaged and damaged
the company is sold to another private equity firm
with more debt, fees paid to wall street and another round of looting
from the new york times

"Simmons says it will soon file for bankruptcy protection, as part of an agreement by its current owners to sell the company — the seventh time it has been sold in a little more than two decades — all after being owned for short periods by a parade of different investment groups, known as private equity firms, which try to buy undervalued companies, mostly with borrowed money.

For many of the company’s investors, the sale will be a disaster. Its bondholders alone stand to lose more than $575 million. The company’s downfall has also devastated employees like Noble Rogers, who worked for 22 years at Simmons, most of that time at a factory outside Atlanta. He is one of 1,000 employees — more than one-quarter of the work force — laid off last year.

But Thomas H. Lee Partners of Boston has not only escaped unscathed, it has made a profit. The investment firm, which bought Simmons in 2003, has pocketed around $77 million in profit, even as the company’s fortunes have declined. THL collected hundreds of millions of dollars from the company in the form of special dividends. It also paid itself millions more in fees, first for buying the company, then for helping run it. Last year, the firm even gave itself a small raise."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/business/economy/05simmons.html

it wasnt the airplane, beauty killed the beast

patient renter argued that flippers and people buying more house than they could afford caused the financial crisis...

i argued that in a healthy financial - economic system even several million defaults wouldnt crash the us and the world economic and financial systems

for that to happen the loans had to be securitized, tanched and swapped, with leverage sprinkled liberally across the process at every opportunity

i appreciate his point that people buying what they could not afford and or going into debt over their heads was the first domino or the striking of the match

but securitization, leverage and derivatives were the tinder dry forest

i recall on the day the tarp bailout was passed, the 700 billion was enough to buy outright every defaulted mortgage with almost half a trillion left over assuming average home price of 225k

today with all the cascading events there might be couple trillion in res RE defaults, just guessing

BUT

the fed has laid off more than 10 trillion in mark to model toxic securities by letting banks and other financial institutions bringing, in some cases, garbage to the fed window and get AAA treasuries etc in exchange

leverage, securitization, and derivatives took a manageable crisis like what we had in the late 80s during the S&L crisis, and turned it into a financial system meltdown

many institutions took the senior tranches of the collateralized debt obligations so that they could get interest rates over prevailing market levels

this involved leverage

furthermore some creative quant types fabricated instruments with greater leverage and diversity including synthetic CDOs and CDOs squared

again this levered up profits when the investors "won"

but the leverage also multiplied losses

there are other examples...CDSs enabled institutions to "write checks with their mouths that their bodies couldnt cash"...so to speak

i generally accept your argument that the theoretically,derivatives are a zero sum game but when a major player like aig, an insurer (writer of protection ) failed, then huge numbers of securities “underwritten by the failing firm lost their AAA rating

zero sum game or not, i have to argue that the gross dollar amount of outstanding derivatives contracts, which was over 500 trillion prior to the crisis, does matter in that it is an indication of the complexity of the web of interconnectedness between all players and the amounts of money that have been cross wagered

theoretically after all the chips pass back and forth across the table the total... of winner and looser deals... will equal out but not every individual nor institution wrote an equal number of winner or looser contracts so some individuals and institutions stood to collapse as the crisis developed

additionally there was counterparty risk...everybody was afraid that the music would stop and they wouldnt have a chair

so as the system strained it began to seize up and institutions began to grab at liquidity available to them and refuse credit to all comers

i think derivatives contributed substantially to the system meltdown

from your example above the following question...when is a 100% loss of a 1$ investment not a 1$ loss

answer when the securitized investment has been "insured" by a credit default swap

how? ... not only do you suffer the loss in principle, but you have been paying premiums to an individual or company which is unable to compensate you for your loss because they have written, by a factor of many times their net worth more policies than they can cover in losses...so your premium bought nothing

further more it was not an uncommon practice for the holder of a securitized portfolio to take out a CDO on the counterparty that they bought the primary CDO from to cover the initial investment

adding insult to injury in the derivatives market individuals and institutions could take out "bets" ie enter into CDS with counter parties who had no insurable interest in the underlying security

it would be as if you and i could buy and sell life insurance on people we didnt know and were neither our employees nor members of our family...it was a casino

free markets arent free

to a friend named...sportsfan

from previous thread you said

"Meanwhile (though not mentioned on that blog) that was the first year since 1933 that Americans could privately own gold.

Allowing private ownership uncut the whole "manipulation" theme."

----

are you saying that allowing private ownership and speculation of a commodity prevents market manipulation

how about oil 16 months ago
how about silver during the hunt brothers corner
how about real estate values in the last decade

permitting private ownership is not a bar to market manipulation

CBs and their primary dealers are manipulating markets buying and selling "paper" commodities they dont have

more than a year ago i got into a heated debate with a trader about whether one could let a futures contract expire and force a physical delivery of a PM

6 months later as physical gold become difficult to buy while the spot market remained flat...many people tried to do just this and the the "ruling "was handed down that cash equivalent to the commodity had to be accepted in settling the futures contract

meanwhile in towns across america physical PMs were selling at a 10 to 15% premium over spot

gold is being manipulated

web search these tittles and see for yourself

"Is the Comex Doing Fractional Reserve Delivery of Gold?"

or this

"Commodity exchanges can dump gold debts on ETFs | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee"

deliveries are being force-settled with paper not the commodity

iq test for joe 6

as posted over at calculated risk blog

"From the WaPo: As Subprime Lending Crisis Unfolded, Watchdog Fed Didn't Bother Barking

... Under a policy quietly formalized in 1998, the Fed refused to police lenders' compliance with federal laws protecting borrowers, despite repeated urging by consumer advocates across the country and even by other government agencies."

----

after reading the lead story and the thread i have to laugh (or cry)

"The Fed and Subprime Lending: The Watchdog that Didn't Bark"

yeah right

more like 'the fed... the watchdog that turned out to be a lap dog"

this entire fiasco is an IQ test for the american people, who so far seem to not comprehend beyond the level of blaming illegals for buying mcmansions

when the real crime took place on wall street and k street

who's dangerous to the country

around the blogs several were speculating whether or not fox news personalities were beating the drum against obama hoping to motivate mass popular uprising or possibly even insurrection or violence

then a poster said "obama is dangerous to this country and people', or 'dangerous to the republic" or is a" communist or socialist"

that is the very kind of statement that fox people want repeated and agreed to

eisenhower called out the guard to escort black students to the segregated public school house and some thought he was dangerous to the country

kennedy agreed to remove us missiles in turkey pointed at russia and refused to invade
cuba...some thought he was dangerous to the country

johnson committed almost 700 thousand troupes to vietnam and spent the treasury dry with guns and butter...some though he was dangerous to the country

nixon instituted price controls and wanted to drop nukes on vietnam a russian client state which could have ignited ww3...some thought nixon was dangerous to the country

ford made a dieing declaration contained in his biography that the government hid evidence of the kennedy assassination and of course ford was a leader in that regard (hiding the evidence)...some think ford was dangerous to the country

carter tried to be more progressive than even his own party, and was seen as weak because he wanted to negotiate instead of fight and wear a sweater while funding alternative energy ...some thought carter was dangerous to the country

reagan ran against carter pushing deregulation and decrying the national debt which was at 750 billion when reagan took office and more than doubled by the time reagan left having built a 500 ship navy etc...some thought he was dangerous to the country

george bush was a cia director and probably a spook much of his life and some people thought it was dangerous to have an ex spy as president

clinton was a young inexperienced leader (and an experienced playboy) who recognized gay rights and tried to negotiate deals between arabs and Israelis... some thought clinton was dangerous to the country

some believe bush 2 did not respond sufficiently to warnings in his daily briefing and from prominent sources that an attack was imminent and then launched a war of choice against a tyrant that had nothing to do with the 911 attack...some thought bush 2 was dangerous to the country

and on and on

fight the political fight all you want.disagree with this president all you want (my feelings about obama are mixed some good some bad)

but leave the crazy talk about the president to fox news and the wing nuts, because hatred and fear and name calling fester and with enough hatred and fear violence will erupt

im old and seen too much of it so everybody please keep it constructive

whos standing on the UE line next to you

regarding jobs and hiring i had this argument with patientrenter 4 days ago

patient renter
remember a few days ago i posted this comment
"i know a young lady
who just graduated last may
from a venerable school in oregon
8th out of a class of 410, phi beta kappa
with a degree in environmental science
who has been looking for work for 5 months
works two temp part time jobs for minimum wage
and was just turned down after an interview for a job that pays 9.50 per hour
there were over 90 applicants, some with post baccalaureate degrees
shes gone thru this drill a couple dozen times so far
so to those who say they will wash dishes if they have to
i think you are going to meet a lot of capable, hard working people with advanced degrees standing in line with you for that job"

and patentrenter you wrote, kinda harshly i thought

""a degree in environmental science"
Sounds like an interesting hobby, with only a moderate chance of becoming a reliable source of a good income. I would never have chosen envir. science if I wanted to maximize my chances of a secure good income. You don't get the right to a secure good income doing whatever you want. I wish her luck, but people do have to live with their choices....."
and i responded
"sounds like a hobby..." ?
Environmental science includes broad scientific areas such as ecology, environmental chemistry, environmental biology, and geology. It also includes lesser known areas of study such as sustainable natural resource use, climate change, soil and water conservation, and pollution mitigation.
companies and agencies like exxon mobil, the epa, ADM , nasa, weyerhaeuser... employ environmental scientists
but as is the case with many other scientific and engineering degrees, the economy has hit many hard
------
and patient renter you responded with
Interesting, my X is a chemist who went into envir science. I respect her technical abilities and work ethic, but there is no doubt that many of the people in the field are fluffy and expect a paycheck for supporting their favorite political cause. (I support much more focus on our environment, but I know waste when I see it.)
(find this exchange at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/node/7792)
----
so i just wanted to set the record straight, that your claim environmental science was a "fluffy" major and a "hobby" for people often times to just support their politics, is just not an accurate judgment as supported by this article below

hat tip barry ritholtz over at bigpicture who referenced this article

of 75 college majors researched at payscale.com environmental science was 24th with a median starting salary of 43k and a median career income of 78k
http://www.payscale.com/best-colleges/degrees.asp
that leaves about 50 college majors below environmental science
my major is near the bottom criminal justice - police science
...patientrenter, care to share your major?

honey ill change... honest i will

hamilton over at econbrowser sees a change in the economy from gloom to neutral

what? neutral?

nothing would please me more than to know i am wrong

hamilton and many other world class economists say the sun begins to shine

but im sorry i dont buy it

----

what has changed???

few if any of the fundamental causes of this breakdown have been corrected

we got to this disaster because we exported jobs and production to lower cost nations

then used the home atm and other methods of borrowed money to buy their goods

we tried to overcome stagnant and falling wages with borrowing

we cut taxes and launched two wars and a prescription drug part d all unfunded

while the asian tigers and ME oil giants were awash with capital looking for a place to invest at a high safe return

our financial giants on wall street and k street deregulated banking and pushed (yes thats right like a drug dealer)

pushed innovative debt instruments and especially derivatives till they came out of our ears

we wallowed in mis-allocated capital (that was borrowed) and prices of homes, commodities and equities etc skyrocketed

then the collapse of counterparty trust in a willey-coyote moment brought the system crashing down

that is the road runner-cliff- notes history of how the shit hit the fan
----

someone tell me, what fundamentals have changed.... (fundamentals)
as the rope, that caught our fall into the abyss, frays

when it comes to health care, remember the maine

americans must be persuaded with fear

100 thousand americans die from medical errors each year

30 thousand in car accidents

less than 10% those numbers in the terrorist attack on 911

after 911 we signed away many of our most precious rights in the bill of rights out of fear that was whipped up by domestic demagogues...wholesale violations of the 4th 5th and 8th amendments for example

health insurance companies regularly ration and deny health care

but the blue dog dems and the repubs have done a masterful job of demonizing government and getting people to fear death panels and gov rationing of health care even tho old people live longer in canada and england and senior citizens in america are glad to have medicare

universal health care will pass eventually...not during good times

but when the country descends into a great depression with 25% unemployment, 100 million without health care and a plague like H1N1 spreading thru the ranks of the poor and unemployed threatening all the rest of the country

fear, fear, is how to sell americans on an idea...remember the maine

what things are fundamental to a prosperous economy
what do we produce as a society and a nation
GD9000, gov reflation aside, the issues are fundamental
we should ask ourselves
are we producing more of the kind of products people want and need,,, and better quality
are we beating back fraud, corruption and criminality.. scourges that destroy business opportunity and a society
hows are trade with other nations
hows our resources base
are we allocating capital effectively so that we invent and create good jobs
i think (guess) the grade we are earning is.......................F
F.......... for........ efffed
seriously effin..... effed dont you think??

oh yeah i left out one biggie
we as a society are in debt up to our eyeballs
other than the above half dozen fundamentals
we have every reason to be optimistic...(snark needle pinned into the red)

outsider
you may well be right...
im terrible at calling the markets
and i come here because most of the people here are much smarter than me about housing, business finance etc
but im learnin and believe im a decent historian and a macro guy
mid term to long term i continue to believe we are in very very deep voodoo
btw
i agree with mel and others that ben, obama and others are trying to save the system because they fear mad max society
and i believe they have been corrupted by the banking oligarchs
whether they are entirely justified about the doom and gloom scenario, im not knowledgeable enuf to know for sure
but
i do believe the" just let it fail crowd" has not fully plumbed the depths of the mayhem that would ensue this time
this would be much much worse than the great depression...again for reasons of fundamentals...
ie,, people are much more dependent today on society and lack skills to be self sufficient

like before the great depression

we have the greatest concentration of wealth in america in one hundred years

the top 1% richest americans own nearly half of all stock, bonds and real property in america

these rulers have been exporting jobs to countries where wages are rock bottom and workers rights and environmental protections are non existent

many americans and their children may be about to inhabit a country where they have no jobs and no health care

btw for those of you who think you have retirement benefits coming...wake up thats been raided along with jobs, and health care

you are about to become serfs in your own country

Money Man

the drama of the town hall meeting will fade
im an old 60s activist
the real umph is to be had by stopping traffic
in 67 behind MLK and other civil rights leaders we marched 40k people down avenue of the americas, across town and to the east side drive of NYC and the riverside church and tied the big apple up in knots all day
total traffic meltdown
when hungry out of work americans clog the freeways with clunkers doing 45 mph and signs on the back saying mad as hell
then the TPTB will get stiff hair on the back of the neck

patient renter wrote
"..."What happens if people get angry enough to stop paying their credit card debt, stop getting that car loan, walk away from the underwater mortgage. J6P can end the game. Don't think he will, but he could...."
---
what happens when many of the 30 million americans who have paid off their houses, no longer have jobs and face being thrown out onto the street by the property tax collector
we have been hemorrhaging jobs for going on a decade or longer and the future looks worse
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/zero-10-year-us-job-creation/
where are the jobs going to come from after the "recovery" where, what sector, what industry

the fdci goldcard

where is FDIC getting the money to cover the losses from taking financial institutions into receivership?

over at bigpicture ritholtz posted a pull from bloomberg indicating fdic outlays in excess of their dwindling account...

scroll down

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/credit-crisis-ou...

no?

what am i getting wrong here

a recent article (may 09) in the atlantic suggested they have an unlimited (kinda sorta) credit line with the treasury

http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/05/the_backdoor_bailout_for_banks_a...

what?

Effective Demand wrote at 12:09 pm
snip
The fed is printing up $1.25 trillion to buy up MBS and 300 billion to buy up treasuries to keep long rates low... Why not take advantage of that to clear up the problem sooner rather than later? TPTB want to use the opportunity to modify as many loans as possible but instead of having one solution, why not have many solutions and lets the lenders make the choice that makes the greatest economic sense?
---
i agree , and
just think, if the fed, treasury, congress, or whom ever had spent the tarp helping all the troubled subprime home "owner"s

they would have had enuf tarp money, (700 plus billion) to outright buy every troubled subprime loan IN TOTAL, give the house to the "owner" for free

and still have had about half a trillion dollars of tarp money left over

---

this is how you know at least (at least) one of two conditions is true

the problem had little to do with subprime
or / and
TPTB are studpid

i think npr is a very good news outlet

but

sometimes....

"Crackdown On Smuggled Guns Hindered By U.S. Laws
mock turtle"


the headline of this article is not supported by the reporting

how do american laws hinder tracking guns???

the gun show loop hole argument is nonsense

heres why (or how)

a us manufactured rifle is seized in mexico

the authorities report the make model and serial number to atf

who contacts the manufacturer, who reports which store or dealer the gun was wholesaled to

the dealer reports the person who bought the fire arm

ok so far?

now the so called loop hole...there is a private transfer from friend to friend or between strangers

cops knock on door, the original purchaser answers and says i sold that gun

the cops say oh yeah, it was picked up at a crime scene, who did you sell it to

at this point the seller better have a pretty good story or he is on the hook as the person who sold a gun to drug traffickers

Sun Aug 2 11:25:47 2009

timmay says no to CDS regulation

we dont need no stinkin regulation

that will just mess up innovation

so let me see if i understand

the loans are bundled

then we pay off a ratings agency to give us triple A

then we slice

we assign each slice an interest rate and a payment sequence

the people who buy the highest interest rate slices take the higher risk

but hey , theres no risk because

its all AAA

we hook them up with a counterparty who sells them insurance (cds)

then we bundle the CDS we bought to insure our triple A

we slice that, and borrowed money is "acquired" to buy it (more leverage)

and we sell those slices to “investors” who again get their share of the premiums based upon

risk...which of course there is none, because we hedge these slices too

and of course everything being bought and sold here

every step of the way, makes me, (us) a commission

and is bought with OPM (borrowed money)

and so we are leveraged each step of the way

weeeeee doggie

now you see why these guys deserve their bonuses

cause they are so smart

and all this could be done without being regulated or eveen having to own an underlying security

cause man we ARE NAKED and lovin it

makes the hippies look like amateurs

mock turtle

we can all be millionaires

in response to a commenter who complained that krugmans desire for more regulation will snuf out productive innovative financial products

---


yes i too would like to hear from LondonYoung or prof Hsu or any other person in defense of goldman about the observation LondonYoung made at the end of his comment speculating that the regulation krugman advocates might impair or halt "economically productive trading"

how about an explanation for just two of these "economically productive trading" schemes which i believe amount to nothing more than a casino model of modern finance

first question, how can a derivative market that dwarfs the volume and value of the real, underlying, market be justified?

whether it is gold, soybeans, oil or mortgage backed securities, when those who neither produce, nor process, nor market nor consume a commodity or product are able to deal contracts, sometimes buying and selling in seconds or less volumes many times the "real" market and then bubble, or crash a market... yes...do tell me... where is the economically productive trading

number two is the credit default swap, the so called insurance...not

since when can a person buy or sell insurance when they have NO insurable interest it would be like me buying an insurance policy on professor hsu's house from LondonYoung when niether of us live there, pay rent, make mortgage payments or have any identifiable fiduciary interest

but that is just what happened...financial concerns were able to place bets (buy fire insurance) on securities they did not own, taking out insurance policies (credit defualt swaps,CDS), from other financial concerns , who , it came to pass did not have the ability to pay in the case of a "fire"

the so called innovation was a dangerous numbers game invented by very smart people, and marketed by very aggressive alpha male CEO types who thought they had it all figured out

well, they didnt and the system is seriously messed up

thanks to people who thought they could play games with debt, leverage, and derivatives

why to hear some talk of it, we could all quite our day jobs and just make a living off of day trading...why we could all be millionaires, right?

this what krugman and others are decrying...the banking oligarchs have levied a tax upon the productive society...they demand a lions share of goods and services by way of their exorbitant compensation while doing less and less of real value

we are in this financial crisis because the richest most powerful financial firms played fast and loose with our financial system

the very crux of the point is that the goldman sachs of the world..and goldman is far from alone...mis-allocated capital to non productive, highly leveraged, very risky "investments" and their bets didnt pay off so now they enjoy government bailouts but refuse regulation

so again i ask those who embrace the apologia of goldman to justify the explosive growth in notional amounts of derivatives and exotic securitizations

and when you get that number, which is in the hundreds of trillions, a factor many times the worlds GDP, then tell me in an approximate dollar amount the value these geniuses have visited upon our society with their "innovations"

btw dont tell me about how the notional values all work out to zero and so theres no harm...the fees and salaries paid to originate these deals are huge, i.e. these guys get big bonuses

and if the notional value didnt matter then the way out of the crisis isnt to unwind all these securities etc, rather, the government could just decree that all derivatives are worth zero and all premiums are halted

that aint gonna happen

financially not e plurabus unum

at another web site a blogger londonyoung argued that the aig bailout did not benefit goldman significantly more than any other large financial institution and that absent the aig bailout goldmans other hedges and couter-parties would have off set the 13 billion flow thru goldman got from aig after the US gov aig bailout

my response

it seems to me that LondonYoung argues that one way or another goldman sachs would be made whole via a host of interwoven counter-party agreements except under the remote occurrence of systemic meltdown, in which case the governments bailout of aig was no more beneficial to goldman than many other financial institutions

the system is not a zero sum game contrary to the scientists among us who love elegance

the financial system just faced a day of reckoning with ponzi scheme economics...most everybody made money during the last decade off of casino finance, because money was literally being "made" as in fabricated rather than earned

if you doubt this all you have to do is track M3, which of course the federal reserve made very obscure two years ago (why do you think!)

this game of musical chairs the financial system was built upon,of late, was played to the tune of debt and leverage

some institutions leveraged on average 30 or 40 to one, and when the music stopped many were left without a chair

the idea that goldman was more deserving, or smarter, or obeyed more fundamental principles or had a better trading strategy is nonsense

in fact goldman sold securities and hawked them as great investments at the very time they were shorting those same instruments... fiduciary responsibility anyone?

goldman real expertise, or skill was its connectedness to the power structure by way of the rotation in and out of high government office of its executive management

goldman got to the head of the line, or the top of the food chain if you prefer, as an analogy

wikipedia goldman and look at the bottom of the article for the list of goldman and government incestuousness

as for LondonYoungs claim on a previous thread that probably the average middle class american was more the beneficiary of these financial innovations (ha more like schemes) than the elite...

it is intuitively obvious that such a claim makes no sense, but for those who disdain intuition consider this

the top 2 percent wealthiest americans own more than half of everything

financial services ebit accounted for the largest earnings of any corporate sector traded in the new york exchanges, and hedge fund managers are compensated best amongst all "professions" in america

if the system crumbles and we shall see who has farthest to fall

stepping into the elevator, "going down?"

anon 2 wrote over at calculated risk

"The standard of living of US citizens has only begun to fall. Their standard of living will continue to fall until it meets the rising standard of living of the developing countries. Not a pleasant prospect."

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so very true

and the american people are very unlikely wake up from their indolence until it is far too late...maybe its far too late already

but our leaders and the fourth estate are culpable

the news media has been captured by the oligarchs

proof

last night at 11pm pac time not one of the 5 major media outlets, not fox, not nbc , not cbs not abc and not public media (news hour etc) was reporting on their web sites front pages (and maybe nowhere..i couldnt find it)

that 4 banks had failed that day, two of them multi billion dollar banks...amazing, while all manner of garbage news stories made the cut

deregulate my bailout please

to professor steve hsu at information processing

its sad to see intelligent people propound the idea that deregulation is worth the occasional melt down

no amount of entrepreneurial genius can compensate the national and world economy for the wholesale damage done by GS and other bankstas

( see great depression 1929 thru 1945)

had not the taxpayers, ie the federal government stepped in goldman quite possibly would have been mortally wounded as a going concern...goldman would not have been alone

the government receivership and bailout of aig allowed for the pass thru of over 13 billion dollars from aig directly to goldman

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-goldman-sachs-wins-big-in-secret-bailout-via-aig-2009-3

make no mistake about it, all of goldmans protestations that this money didnt matter because of other hedging schemes is pure bs...failure on the part of the federal government to step in would have meant systemic financial collapse,and the collapse of a broad array of counterparties with a huge cascading events following

in 2008 goldman had an EBIT (op revenue) of a little less than 2 and 1/2 billion dollars...the loss of 13 billion from aig would have been devastating

and goldman would not have been alone as the universe of US financials who were by-in-large heavily "invested" in casino securitizations

dont worry about whether or not im right about this...the government has only delayed the inevitable...the toxic assets, or (legacy assets as geithner calls it are still out there

we as a society will be paying for this for a long time to come including a diminution of the middle class...we probably deserve it