Thursday, November 26, 2009

alas the poor dollar i knew himm well

my dear country is about to begin taking its bitter medicine and the affliction will result in a long term and most unpleasant treatment (gross understatement)

the weakening (devaluation) of the dollar will force us to deal with our imbalanced trade (current account deficit)by making imports more expensive...like a tariff... only no income goes to uncle sam

a strengthening currency entitles the bearer to a greater share of the goods and services produced by a country that has a comparatively weakened currency

china, with a strengthening currency and economy none the less faces a number of future liabilities

first they hold maybe around one trillion dollars of their reserves as dollars or dollar denominated securities....the value of which is rapidly declining

second their country is "geared" towards being an exporting economy not a consumer economy, they will no doubt transition

we

the usa

are lucky that we have all our international "debts" (japan saudi britain and china hold the lions share)

all these debts are dollar denominated

by contrast poor argentia for instance owed a ton of money denominated in dollars

when their currency went bust

their debt was magnified...ouch

but as the value of the dollar drops, people around the world will be looking to either spend their dollars on real things or get out of dollars thus driving further the dollars decline

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

greed is not good

ok this all just got too abstract for me and im to blame...i own it

bringin it down to brass tacks

id like to make enuf money AND do substantial good along the way

some people have no concept of enuf

they are never satisfied

as the door to the tomb is slowly closing they have to go back one more time to fill their pockets up with treasure until they are trapped for eternity..entombed

1 million dollar bonuses are not enuf cause the guy next door is getting 2 million and you gotta get the most

the world is never enuf

thats greed

greed is NOT good

greed is unrestrained growth...greed is cancer

you can make money and participate in a community and a governing process that aims towards justice and fairness

and yes there are many examples where governments are corrupted and run over the people

but a land without governance,.... a free for all simply means the strongest bully , or the most powerful gang rules by terror

you can eliminate government tomorrow but one would still have, out of control mega corporations and gangs (mafia , crips bloods hells angels ms13) secret societies and tribalism

whats the alternative?

you may know them by their deeds

look, im trying to be clear not riddle-culous

you are not slow im just not saying it right

ok third try

claiming self interest or claiming selflessness...neither claim is necessarily authentic

know people by their record of actions not possibly feigned philosophical claims

MLK was an altruistic guy...not cause he said he was...cause he did he was

being brutally honest

1write wrote
"I'm slow. What do you mean?"

---

to review, you said,

"When somebody claims self-interest as a motive they seem more honest to me than someone who claims the motive of seflessness."

my rhetorical question is:

so when i rob you ill make sure to remark how im doing this in my own self interest and that will make you see me as a person of great integrity?

the honesty of a shark

1 write said

"When somebody claims self-interest as a motive they seem more honest to me than someone who claims the motive of seflessness. I'm very weary of the religious."

---

well i guess that make genghis khan one hell of a mensch

NAV for companies with international exposure

RockyR said

"mostly in cash here. sad"

hey Rocky, yeah...its hard to know if one should jump, the markets are so crazy

gold looking bubblelicious of late if you just look at the chart

but

when one considers the talk coming out of the fed...maintaining low rates

and all the rest of the craziness out there...gold probably still has a good run ahead of it

i guess...but i just dont know...and for that reason im never all in...in anything

and so ill never make the big hit...im notsosmart

theres a good argument out there that equities will continue to do well as long as the fed is demolishing the dollar

ie if one assumes any company has an intrinsic NAV then as the dollar becomes worth less the dollar denominated value of the outstanding shares should go up

heres my question, ...is this more true.... or only true... for companies that have international market exposure...i would think so,

and they should do "better" if (when) there is a recovering world economy as we, the (usa) are being dunked repeatedly in the toilet

gdx is not gld

to RockyR

im not smart about GDX, im not sure i can answer your question, so research this idea

but i think that this etf is composed of parts that mine and as such those producers hedge in such a way (straddle is it called ?) that price fluctuations outside of a predicted range, both higher and lower, dampen profits

ie the producers count a a business model where price is stable or slow trend

again im not smart about this and will check it out tonight